In our opinion, the scenario of early elections in 2018 is gaining ground as the Greek government considers three facts:
First, the current program ends in August 2018, and it is likely a new one is necessary. Thus, it would be preferred if the new program were to be signed by the next government.
Second, quantitative targets and specific details for the medium-term measures for the debt relief will be decided by the Eurozone in 2018.
Third, Greece should elect a new President of the Hellenic Republic in 2020. If the main opposition, New Democracy, wins the elections with a weak majority, SYRIZA will have almost two years to revive its percentage, taking into account that the government of New Democracy in 2019 and 2020 will have to implement the tough measures which have been already agreed by SYRIZA.
The latter should be considered in conjunction with the new election law which will become effective after the next elections.
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